CHANCES ARE – MLB PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES by BILL ARNOLD

Major-league teams have completed the first two months of the 2017 regular season and there have been some surprises, both good and bad. For the last several years, Fangraphs has calculated daily probabilities for each team making the playoffs based on past performance and projected performance over the rest of season.

Through Thursday, this season’s probability grid indicated that several clubs might fade over the next four months while others may improve.

  • The Houston Astros had the best chance (99.9 percent) of making the playoffs followed by the Washington Nationals (99.1 percent).
  • Two teams that have done surprisingly well in the first two months of 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins, are not projected to make the postseason with probabilities of 8.6 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively.

The following chart shows each team’s current record and position in its division along with its probability of making the playoffs per Fangraphs (records and probabilities through Thursday; PP – playoff probability):

AL East

Team          Record  Pct.   GB      PP

Yankees        34-23   .596            75.9%

Red Sox       32-27   .542    3.0     81.8%

Orioles       31-27   .534    3.5     25.2%

Rays           31-31   .500    5.5     22.6%

Blue Jays      29-31   .483    6.5     28.6%

AL Central

Team          Record   Pct.   GB    PP

Twins         30-26    .536         11.3%

Indians       29-28    .509   1.5   90.2%

Tigers        29-30    .492   2.5   22.2%

Royals        26-33    .441   5.5    3.0%

White Sox     25-33    .431   6.0    0.1%

AL West

Team          Record   Pct.   GB     PP

Astros        43-18    .705          99.9%

Angels        31-32    .492  13.0     5.6%

Mariners      30-31    .492  13.0    21.3%

Rangers       27-32    .458  15.0     6.4%

A’s           26-33    .441  16.0     6.0%

NL East

Team          Record   Pct.   GB     PP

Nationals     38-21    .644         99.1%

Braves        26-32    .448  11.5    0.3%

Marlins       26-33    .441  12.0    8.5%

Mets          25-32    .439  12.0   12.6%

Phillies      21-37    .362  16.5    0.0%

NL Central

Team          Record   Pct.   GB     PP

Brewers       32-29    .525           8.6%

Cubs          30-29    .508   1.0    89.3%

Reds          29-30    .492   2.0     1.2%

Cardinals     26-32    .448   4.5    26.6%

Pirates       26-34    .433   5.5     4.2%

NL West

Team          Record   Pct.   GB      PP

Rockies       39-23    .629          78.4%

Diamondbacks  37-25    .597   2.0    67.5%

Dodgers       36-25    .590   2.5    99.1%

Giants        25-37    .403  14.0     4.6%

Padres        23-38    .377  15.5     0.0%