DAVE DOMBROWSKI’S BIGGEST OFFSEASON MISJUDGEMENT

The biggest mistake Dave Dombrowski made this offseason was either not getting a power bat to fill the huge void left by David Ortiz or presuming he had a starting rotation with three aces in Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello when actually he had one ace (Sale) and a pair of threes (Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez); David Price is an “incomplete” but things are not going well at this point (as noted here and here.

Dombrowski had inhaled too much of the good scent produced by Porcello in his Cy Young season as opposed to realistically looking at Porcello, but then again, Dombrowski has had a high opinion of the righty going back to both of their Detroit days.

Porcello lost again last night to the Yankees (NY 8-0).

Only seven grounders tells Porcello’s story 
Pitching IP H R ER BB SO HR BF Pit Str GB FB LD GSc
Rick Porcello, L (3-8) 6.1 8 6 5 2 5 2 29 103 71 7 15 5 38
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/8/2017.

Porcello’s season thus far is not that different from most of his prior years at this point.

Rick Porcello on June 8: 2009-17

Note the upward HR trend following his 2009 rookie season

  • June 8, 2009: 6-4, 3.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10 HR
  • June 8, 2010: 4-5, 5.25 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 4 HR
  • June 8, 2011: 6-3, 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7 HR
  • June 8, 2012: 3-4, 5.03 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 8 HR
  • June 8, 2013: 3-3, 4.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8 HR
  • June 8, 2014: 8-3, 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8 HR
  • June 8, 2015: 4-5, 5.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11 HR
  • June 8, 2016: 7-2, 4.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12 HR
  • June 8, 2017: 3-8, 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 14 HR

Other than last season, most of Porcello’s end of season numbers have been mediocre

But good enough for a number three, or back-end, starter

Porcello is allowing hits at the highest rate of his career
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP FIP WHIP H9 Awards
2009 DET 14 9 .609 3.96 0 0 170.2 176 81 75 23 52 89 3 4.77 1.336 9.3 RoY-3
2010 DET 10 12 .455 4.92 0 0 162.2 188 96 89 18 38 84 7 4.31 1.389 10.4
2011 DET 14 9 .609 4.75 0 0 182.0 210 103 96 18 46 104 8 4.06 1.407 10.4
2012 DET 10 12 .455 4.59 0 0 176.1 226 101 90 16 44 107 6 3.91 1.531 11.5
2013 DET 13 8 .619 4.32 1 0 177.0 185 87 85 18 42 142 3 3.53 1.282 9.4
2014 DET 15 13 .536 3.43 3 3 204.2 211 89 78 18 41 129 4 3.67 1.231 9.3
2015 BOS 9 15 .375 4.92 0 0 172.0 196 103 94 25 38 149 10 4.13 1.360 10.3
2016 BOS 22 4 .846 3.15 3 0 223.0 193 85 78 23 32 189 13 3.40 1.009 7.8 CYA-1
2017 BOS 3 8 .273 4.46 0 0 80.2 104 49 40 14 16 78 1 4.02 1.488 11.6
9 Yr 110 90 .550 4.21 7 3 1549.0 1689 794 725 173 349 1071 55 3.95 1.316 9.8
DET DET 76 63 .547 4.30 4 3 1073.1 1196 557 513 111 263 655 31 4.03 1.359 10.0
BOS BOS 34 27 .557 4.01 3 0 475.2 493 237 212 62 86 416 24 3.77 1.217 9.3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/8/2017.

Nine to Know: Most hits allowed 2009-17

Hits were the vehicle, but look at the hits per nine innings, WHIP, and BAA 
Rk Player H H9 ERA WHIP To SHO W L W-L% IP BB SO FIP HR Tm BA OBP SLG OPS
1 James Shields 1733 8.88 3.87 1.278 2017 7 102 92 .526 1756.1 511 1545 4.03 233 TBR-KCR-SDP-CHW .257 .313 .424 .738
2 Rick Porcello 1689 9.81 4.21 1.316 2017 3 110 90 .550 1549.0 349 1071 3.95 173 DET-BOS .277 .321 .422 .743
3 Justin Verlander 1563 7.78 3.30 1.148 2017 5 131 76 .633 1809.0 513 1786 3.24 167 DET .231 .288 .362 .649
4 Mark Buehrle 1551 9.72 3.83 1.296 2015 3 92 73 .558 1435.2 309 787 4.08 152 CHW-MIA-TOR .278 .317 .425 .742
5 Jon Lester 1545 8.08 3.38 1.206 2017 2 122 79 .607 1720.1 530 1670 3.37 159 BOS-OAK-CHC .240 .302 .372 .674
6 Ricky Nolasco 1538 9.89 4.66 1.334 2017 4 83 88 .485 1399.0 328 1134 3.84 171 FLA-MIA-LAD-MIN-LAA .279 .322 .445 .767
7 Felix Hernandez 1533 7.77 2.94 1.135 2017 9 117 75 .609 1776.0 482 1693 3.16 144 SEA .232 .290 .344 .634
8 Cole Hamels 1531 8.09 3.27 1.168 2017 5 100 73 .578 1704.0 460 1619 3.47 178 PHI-TEX .240 .296 .380 .676
9 CC Sabathia 1529 8.71 3.75 1.258 2017 2 113 70 .617 1580.1 459 1391 3.74 174 NYY .253 .310 .394 .705
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/8/2017.